Understanding Baseball Betting Lines (Part 2)

Now that we know how to read baseball betting lines, let's get into some of the details that can be of benefit to your handicapping. Interpreting and understanding the line is an absolute must if you're going to be successful at betting baseball.

Now you don't have to spend all day staring at baseball betting lines and following the changes, but it is important to a have a good grasp of how they're set and why they're moving. Baseball is a little bit different than your spread based sports, so you'll see the money lines move a little more often.

Some of the moves may have substance behind them, while others can be meaningless. What we want to know is how they're set, what's driving the movement, and how can we capitalize on it. Let's take a look at our first question in more detail.

Baseball betting lines really aren't set any different than an NFL or NBA line...and it's not to get an equal amount of action on both teams as most people would have you believe. It's virtually impossible to do this and the sportsbooks know it.

Sportsbook managers, without a doubt, take sides in the lines they set and that's why they're more prone to draw as much square money as they can on "perceived" good teams...in other words, lines definitely get shaded for favorites (typically public teams and "good" teams) in baseball.

The two biggest factors that establish baseball betting lines are starting pitching and overall public perception. There it is again, public perception. Whether it's good or bad, public perception is deception when it comes to betting baseball (or any sport for that matter).

Any team that is perceived to be good or bad by the public will without a doubt have their line shaded more often than not, thus offering value to the sharp bettor on the other side. The sportsbooks will shade lines as much as they can drawing in public money. However, if they shade it to much, then sharp bettors will pound it.

The initial line that comes out is called a virgin line. It only reflects the oddsmakers/sportsbooks opinion on the game.

However, once that line comes out and is available to bet on, you'll see very quickly if they've set an equitable line because sharp money will cause sportsbooks to adjust it quickly...not much different than the bid/ask on a stock price.

Virgin baseball betting lines will come out the night before, but there are limits on the amount that can be wagered on them, just in case of an inefficient line being set. In the morning, the lines will most likely be adjusted and then opened up for normal limits.

Lines will change because of money being wagered on one team or another. However, it's not necessarily the amount, it's also the matter of who is betting it.

Money that is being bet by the public/squares will move the line much slower than a sharp bettor putting money on a side. Public money is usually wagered throughout the day while sharp money is typically bet early in the day or closer to game time (taking advantage of the value that was created throughout the day).

Baseball betting takes up a very small portion of a sportsbooks handle when compared to other professional sports. It's a fact that baseball is one of the least profitable sports as far as hold percentage...that's right, the LEAST profitable.

That last sentence is exactly why baseball should be your most important focus when it comes to sports handicapping...more value can be found in baseball than any other professional sport. Because there are so many games and players involved, sportsbooks will make mistakes in the lines they set...and professionals handicappers know this.

OK, let's stay on track. Of course baseball betting lines can change for other reasons like injuries, weather, trades...etc. However, the majority of the time they change is because of the amount of money being bet as well as who's betting it. Now that we know how baseball betting lines are set and why they move, let's take a look at how to take advantage.

Let me first preface this by saying that if this were easy than everybody would be doing it. So don't think that following line movement will make you rich over night. It's a fine art and will certainly take time for you to learn the ropes.

The first concept we want to capitalize on is what sides/totals the sharp money is coming in on and then simply follow their lead (as long as there is still value in the line). Again though, this is much easier said than done.

By far the best site for this type of data is Sports Insights. They offer the most accurate information and indicators when it comes to steam and sharp money.

They do charge a monthly subscription (very affordable even for a $50 a game player) that is well worth the cost and I can you assure you that it will more than pay for itself every month. Without a doubt, they provide the most up to date data of where sharp money is being bet.

Now the nice thing about Sports Insights though is they do everything for you. You just sit back and they'll track all of the information and let you know when to place a bet according to their market indicators...again, this is what you're paying them to do.

However, you can always go the "do it yourself" route as well, it'll just take a bit more time. Now you don't have to sit around all day and stare at line movement, but you do have to keep a pretty good eye on it.

Basically what you're looking for are large line moves in a very short amount of time...this is a good sign that sharp money was just wagered on that team. Once you see this, and you're information still justifies the wager i.e. value, then make you're bet ASAP.

As I said though, following sharp money/steam is a fine art and will take some time to figure out completely. If you don't have the time, then I'd highly suggest you look into Sports Insights.

The other concept of that will help us capitalize on line movement is what's called "reverse line moves." If you've read any of our other Sports Betting Guides (NFL Betting Guide and NBA Betting Guide) then you already know what reverse line movement is and how important it can be.

Reverse line movement occurs when the favored team is receiving the majority of the money, however the line is not adjusting or it's actually moving the other way. This is the exact opposite of what should be occurring.

Normally, if the majority of money coming in is on the favorite, then the line will continue to be moved up, thus enticing money to be bet on the underdog. Well, with reverse line movement, it's the exact opposite of what should be happening (kind of like the Twilight Zone).

When you see this type of movement happening, you need to pay attention very closely. When the favorite is receiving the majority of the money, but the line isn't moving or is going the opposite direction, then it typically means sharp money is coming in on the other side.

With that being the case, you're best best bet is to take the underdog or at least stay away from the favorite. If you're handicapping matches up with the underdog, then you have a very nice value bet that you certainly should take advantage of.

Reverse line movement should be something you pay very close attention too since it can be a great tool. Again, Sports Insights has the most accurate, up to date data for tracking reverse line movement (I know I sound like a commercial, but when I find something I truly believe in and I know can help other handicappers, then I get fully behind it).

If you're more of the hands off type, then Sports Insights will take care of the hard work for you. However, if you have the time on your hands, then I would highly encourage you to follow the lines yourself because you'll learn a ton.

My favorite site by far if you're looking for live free odds is Show Me The Odds. Simply go there to download the software and you'll be set. This will give you a feed for up to date line changes at the biggest online sportsbooks. Pregame also has a pretty nice free live odds service as well.

As I've said a million times, we want to be on the same side as the sharps and the sportsbooks. We can do this by following the sharp money as well as reverse line movement. These are two concepts that should be implemented in every baseball handicappers philosophy (I guarantee every professional uses them).

Something that is extremely important (and we'll touch on in great detail on our Baseball Betting Advice Page) is shopping for the best baseball betting lines available. Lines will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, so I can't stress enough how important it is to find the best ones available.

This will save, and make, you a lot of money over time. Line shopping at various sportsbooks is absolutely crucial. But like I said, we'll talk more about this later.

I hope we've helped you understand how to read baseball betting lines, but more importantly, I hope we've given you some tips that you can implement everyday to help in becoming a better handicapper. Now that we have the lines down, let's take a look at how to actually place a baseball bet. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

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SBI!

Understanding Baseball Betting Lines (continued)

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