Baseball Betting Statistics: Pitching

Now that you have a good understanding of the offensive baseball betting statistics, let's get into the more defensive/pitching stats. Again, we'll cover a few in detail and how to use them, but there are more than enough out there that you can implement into your baseball handicapping.

Obviously, pitching has a major impact on the odds for a game. But as you know by now, there are other important factors and elements that can show +EV in a line simply because so much weight is put on starting pitchers.

In this chapter, we're going to dig a little deeper into the pitching/defensive stats in order to compare them to the opponents offensive stats to give you a more accurate line...and possibly the opportunity for a wager.

These baseball betting statistics we'll cover here will give you much greater insight into a teams defense. Anybody can find a pitchers ERA, but what we want to examine is if there's true substance behind it.

Some may be inflated and some be deflated. We want to find out why, and obviously look for betting opportunities going against a deflated ERA and betting with an inflated one.

Again, and I know I've said this many times, there's no top secret formula to winning at baseball (or any sports for that matter). It comes down to hard work and perseverance.

Every successful handicapper does both. While sharp bettors have their own individual methods, they're all looking for value and an edge they can exploit.

We'll give you some great baseball betting statistics to get you started or that you can add to your handicapping if you've been doing it for a while, but it's up to you to take it to the next level.

We're here to help and guide. That's why we call it a Baseball Betting Guide and not the "get rich secret to betting on baseball." Alright, alright, let's get to our defensive/pitching baseball betting statistics.

Now we're not going to go into the application of the stats just yet. Rather, we'll go through a few of the most important ones that we feel are vital to your baseball handicapping strategy.

Obviously, these aren't the end all be all. There's plenty of others, so you can get as in depth as you'd like. What we're trying to do is introduce a few that you may or may not be familiar with and how they can be applied to your handicapping.

We'll go into more detail of applying these defensive stats to the opponents offensive stats, along with other factors, when we discuss power ratings. However, you should be getting a much clearer idea at this point of how to create your own ratings along with expected win probabilities.

Following is a list of what I feel to be the most important defensive/pitching baseball statistics along with a definition and comments. All of these statistics, along with the offensive ones, can be found and are updated daily at Baseball Prospectus. So lets get to it.

Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) - This is basically the percent that a ball in play is turned into an out, minus homeruns. The actual formula is 1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR)).

The average rate is around 69%, which would mean that 69% of balls in play are turned into outs. Anything above 69% will benefit a pitcher and his stats, while anything below will hurt it.

WHIP - A pretty universal stat, but it is walks and hits per innings pitched. Similar to OBP, but for a pitcher.

Expected ERA (xERA) - This is designed to give you a pitchers true ERA since it is purely based on factors within the pitcher's control (not the bullpen or other defensive players). The formula is: ((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) - (.01 * K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor). A good normalizing factor is about 2.70.

xERA is a much more accurate picture of a pitchers performance than ERA. You compare the two and look for the pitcher's actual ERA to revert closer to the xERA. Any discrepancies greater than .50 should be a very good indicator of betting for or against a pitcher.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA - Another measure exclusive to pitcher responsibility. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP + Normalizing Factor). A good normalizing factor for FIP is about 3.20.

This is another stat that will tell you how a pitcher did individually, regardless of how his defense fielded. Somewhat similar to xERA.

Quick ERA (QERA) - This one is a little more complicated, but Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus puts it in easy terms. QuikERA (QERA), which estimates what a pitcher's ERA should be based solely on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and GB/FB ratio (GB-ground balls, FB-fly balls).

These three components--K rate, BB rate, GB/FB--stabilize very quickly, and they have the strongest predictive relationship with a pitcher’s ERA going forward. What’s more, they are not very dependent on park effects, allowing us to make reasonable comparisons of pitchers across different teams. The formula is: QERA =(2.69+K%*(-3.4)+BB%*3.88+GB%*(-0.66))^2

Note that everything ends up expressed in terms of percentages: strikeouts per opponent plate appearance, walks per opponent plate appearance, and groundballs as a percentage of all balls hit into play. Andy Pettitte, for example, has a 19.6% K rate, a 7.9% BB rate, and a 62.7% GB rate, giving him a QERA of 3.68. Note further that QERA is exponential, which is appropriate since run scoring is not linear.

Definitely a much better explanation and example than I would have thrown together. QERA, along with xERA and FIP, is another good prediction of a pitcher's true ERA moving forward.

Bullpen ERA - pretty obvious, the cumulative ERA of a teams bullpen. You'll want to compare it to the league average to get an accurate power rating (obviously other factors to consider are recent performance, specific mathcups, splits...etc).

Team Record in Games Started (TRGS) - this is the actual team record for when an individual pitcher starts whether he gets a decision or not. Often times a pitchers W/L perecentage is very similar to his TRGS percentage.

However, there are times when there are relatively large differences. What we're looking for are these large differences and the value it can offer in our handicapping. A pitcher may have a .400 win percentage, however may have a .600 TRGS.

This could be an indication of value depending on the line. This is just another baseball betting statistic to keep an eye on and can easily be incorporated when hanidapping games.

Certainly, there's plenty more (plenty more complicated as well) defensive baseball betting statistics you can use within your handicapping. However, I feel these to be the most important, and give you more than enough data to create an accurate power rating.

As we listed in our previous chapter, Offensive Statistics, there are plenty of sites that list these stats and are updated on a daily basis...in other words, don't feel that you have to update and keep track of them yourself.

As far as applying them to your handicapping, all you're basically trying to do is compare how a pitching staff (starter and bullpen)/defense matchup up against the offense they'll be facing that day...with taking into account park effects, weather, injuries, and other important factors.

From these simple baseball betting statistics, you can generate a power rating for a teams defense/pitching. You then can compare that number to the offensive power rating of their opponent to create the expected number of runs to be scored.

After that is established, you then have to account and adjust for other factors...which we listed above. We'll get into more detail and give you a simple way to create your own ratings (using what we've mentioned) in our Handicapping a Baseball Game chapter. Once you have an idea of how to create them, you then can adjust as you feel necessary.

While these stats will provide you with the hard data, you still have to adjust for the intangibles. Baseball betting statistics can play a major role in handicapping, but you'll have to account for the unknowns as well.

It's certainly not rocket science, but rather a fine art. Understanding and applying baseball betting statistics to your handicapping can give you insights that you may have never noticed from simply subjectively looking at matchups.

Again though, if you're more of a novice handicapper, don't overwhelm yourself...it's important to take it one step at a time. However, if you're more of an intermediate to advanced handicapper, then hopefully you were able to pick something up as well.

Enough of these baseball betting statistics, let's move on. Next up, Baseball Betting Systems (sorry there's no get rich quick secrets here either). We'll cover a few systems and the role they can play in your handicapping. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

Have A Question or Want to Add Your Own Thoughts ?

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