Baseball Betting System

Let me first preface this by letting you know that we don't have a get rich quick baseball betting system. I wish we did, but we don't (and nobody does for that matter, so please don't go down that path even though so many people are trying to sell you otherwise).

What we do have are a couple very simple baseball betting systems (per-say) that can help you to become a better handicapper. However, what we're trying to help you do is open your eyes in how to create your own that can be implemented into your baseball handicapping philosophy.

Baseball betting systems or trends that everybody knows about aren't going to hold much value. It's the proprietary ones that you come up with yourself from your own data and research that are going to make you successful...trust me, successful baseball bettors aren't out there telling everybody their best secrets.

I personally feel that creating your own power ratings and estimated win probabilities are the most significant baseball betting system you can use, but we'll talk more about that in our Handicapping a Baseball Game chapter.

Whether it's a sports betting system, a sports betting formula, or whatever fancy name they call it these days, they're all basically referring to the same type of data. Some hold up, while others fall by the waste-side.

While we'll only mention a couple systems here, you can find them just about anywhere. The main thing is that they have some substance behind them and are statistically significant, just as we explained in our Baseball Betting Trends chapter.

There's a lot of good software out there that will allow you to create your own sports betting system and will allow you to input all kinds of variables to determine historical records of particular situations (Stat Attack Sports is our favorite). More importantly though, it's how you predict that these certain trends and systems will perform in the future.

Obviously, the key when you find a new sports betting system or trend that shows promise is to keep track of it so you're ready when a game falls into those parameters and value is on your side.

I think you get the point I'm making. Let's go over a couple very simple systems and and how they can be applied to your overall baseball handicapping strategy.

Again, these systems should not be followed blindly. They should simply be used as a factor for betting on or against teams in particular situations.

Baseball Favorite System - I first learned of this system a few years ago from Allen Moody over at About.com. It's a very simple system to use and has shown good results.

You're looking to bet on any team with a .470 winning percentage or greater if it's a home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or more.

Now I'm not going to list any records because they will vary from year to year and you might be reading this 10 years after I wrote it. In other words, you'll need to check if this baseball betting system is still statistically significant.

Pitcher Form Reversal - What we're looking for are lucky or unlucky pitchers and to bet with or against them. It's another pretty simple baseball betting system, but has shown to be very reliable.

If you know me by now, I'm always looking for mean reversion and that's exactly what this is. A pitcher can only be so lucky or unlucky before the trend reverses.

In one case, we're looking to bet on pitchers that have an ERA better than the league average, but have less than .400 record with a minimum of 7 starts. In this case they're probably getting poor run support, while pitching very well.

In our handicapping, we will take into account the possibility of this trend reversing very soon. In the other case, we're looking for the exact opposite.

We're looking to bet against a pitcher that has an ERA worse than the league average, but has a greater than .600 record. In this case, he's getting great run support, while not pitching well at all.

Again, this is not an exact science, and should never be followed blindly. The entire game should be handicapped, with a baseball betting system simply being another factor to support your research and data.

Granted, these are just a couple, but if you look hard enough you can find plenty of others. However, the best are going to be the ones you discover yourself...and keep to yourself.

A baseball betting system that everybody knows about is going to carry little to no value. It's the ones you develop through your own research that are going to help you become a profitable baseball bettor.

The good thing is that you can continue to develop and refine you're own systems for years to come. Alright, enough with the systems, let's move to what I feel is the most important aspect to becoming a successful baseball handicapper: creating your own power ratings, lines, and developing win probabilities.

Once you have created your own line for a game, then you can see where the value lies...or if there's any there at all for either the side or the total. If there is, then you can look at other factors (trends, systems, etc) and apply them as well.

Once you have everything factored in, the play may become much stronger or you may end up laying off the game all together. I'm getting a little ahead of myself though...we'll get much more into it within the next chapter.

With that being said, let's move on to our next and most important chapter within our Baseball Betting Guide, Hanicapping a Baseball Game. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

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