Betting Baseball Totals
(continued)

Well you've made it through the first section of our Betting Baseball Totals chapter, so now it's time to move on to part 2. Hopefully you were able to learn something new or at least gain a little more insight into totals wagering.

While are first part was primarly dedicated to some general advice and insight, we'll get more into some tips and strategy in part 2. Again though, we're merely providing the training wheels. It's up to you to actually put it into practice.

There can be a nice ROI and certainly +EV in betting baseball totals, but it's up to the handicapper to put in the hardwork. No real professional is going to do it all for you or give you their best ideas (as much as so many "scamdicappers" and various websites want you to believe.)

To become a truly successful handicapper, it comes down to trusting your own instincts, data, information, systems, strategies...etc. Nobody is going to sell you their best secrets for $99...so please don't believe it.

Put in the time, put in the research, and I can assure you that you'll be a better handicapper for it. Once again, I'm on my high horse. Without further ado, let's move on.

Wow, I'm really rewriting the books of betting baseball totals with this brilliant tip. Yes I know, it's extremely important, but it must be mentioned.

Pitching (relievers and starters) is going to play the biggest factor in how many runs are scored. Better pitching equals less runs, while bad pitching equals more runs. In other words, you better know your pitchers (relievers and starters) inside and out.

You need to know their current form, how they've pitched against this team in recent meetings, how they pitch in this ballpark, how many innings do you expect him to pitch...etc.

Of course you need to know where the bullpen is at as well. Have they been pitching a ton of innings the last week? Who is available? What is the mangers strategy for the bullpen? This list can go on and on, but you get the point.

I know it's obvious, but it's vital to have a very good understanding for both teams pitching staff when it comes to betting baseball totals.

This is one of my favorite tips when it comes to betting baseball totals...and you probably already know, but I'm always looking for situations where mean reversion can play a factor (this typically means better value in my opinion).

Granted, there's a famous quote concerning equities that goes, "markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid" (John Maynard Keynes). Now I absolutely consider this to be the case with equities, however, I don't wholeheartedly believe it to be the case with sports betting (although streaks and trends could theoretically last forever).

This is why I'm always searching for outlying trends to revert back to there typical mean. Well, one of these trends is when a starting pitcher has an extremely lopsided O/U record at the All Star break or somewhere around the middle of the season (minimum 10 game O/U record and over an 80% record either towards the over or under)

For instance, if I find a pitcher that has a 10-2 O/U record, then you can be damn sure I'm going to be looking to bet the under in that pitchers up coming matchups...obviously other factors need to be considered as well.

But those types of outliers are what we're looking for in our research for betting baseball totals. While most people will be looking to bet the over (because that's what the trend is), I'll definitely be looking to fade that trend...especially if the other starter is in a similar situation.

These are the types of situations you should be looking for and accounting for in your handicapping. I personally could care less about trends (for the most part), and let's face it, trends are meant to be broken.

While this is only one situation, there can be many others out there but you must also have research and data to backup your opinion, especially if you're going to bet on it.

Another one of those mind blowing tips for betting baseball totals. Not really, but still extremely important to know and only God knows how many sports bettors totally forget to check the weather.

I won't pound this into the ground because we've already discussed it at great detail in our Baseball Handicapping chapter, but realize what a major factor weather can play in how many runs are scored in game.

What direction is the wind blowing? What's the game time temperature? Are there storms coming in? These questions are vital to ask yourself before ever getting down on a total. It'll take about 2 minutes to check the weather...just do it.

Park factors are absolutely crucial to know when betting baseball totals. They're simple to calculate and are easy to update within a spreadsheet.

All baseball parks (stadiums) are not created equal. That's were park factors come into play. Some parks are prone to more scoring, while others are much more pitcher friendly.

What you need to do as a smart handicapper is know which stadiums are which. While there are a few different ways to calculate park factors, the easiest is known at Base Park Index (to give full credit, I first learned of this in the Betting Baseball series of books, however it is a well known index).

Base Park Index will also help determine what a pitcher's true ERA is (although it's certainly not perfect). Other factors need to be considered (weather especially), as this is just one tool to help with betting baseball totals.

For the most accurate forecast of Base Park Index, it is best to have 3-5 years of data as fluctuations can occur from year to year because of outside circumstances (in other words, the more data, the better).

As we describe how to figure Base Park Index, you can definitely find this type of information at many other baseball specific websites as well (listed in previous chapters, but here is ESPN's park index info ). However, if you're the more do it yourself type, then this will definitely get you started.

You'll certainly want to make tweaks to how you calculate this over time, while we are merely giving you a good starting point.

So, here's how to calculate Base Park Index:

(1). Add Total Runs Scored In Home Park
(2). Add Total At-Bats In Home Park
(3). Divide Total Runs Scored (1) by Total At-Bats (2)
(4). Add Total Runs Scored In Away Games
(5). Add Total At-Bats In Away Games
(6). Divide Total Runs Scored Away (4) by Total At-Bats Away
(7). Finally, divide (3) by (6)

Most of the time you'll end up with a number between 90-110%. The average park will be at 100%. Lower scoring parks will be under 100%, while higher scoring parks will be over 100%.

If a park is rated 108%, then there are 8% more runs scored on average in that ball park (and vice versa). Now that we have the index down, we can adjust a pitchers ERA accordingly.

Let's say that a pitchers ERA for the season is 3.97, however he pitches in a home park with an index of 86%. Well this obviously means that a lot of his games are being pitched in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Here is how to calculate a better picture of what his true ERA may really be in the average ballpark:

(1). Take Park Index minus 1 (.86 - 1 = -.14)
(2). Divide (1) by 2 (-.14 / 2 = -.07)
(3). Multiply (2) by 3.97 (-.07 x 3.97 = -.278)
(4). Take 3.97 minus (3) (3.97 - (-.278) = 4.25)

This tells us that taking into account the pitchers Base Park Index, that this pitchers true ERA is around 4.25 in an average ballpark. Again, this certainly isn't perfect, but it will definitely serve as a good starting point in calculating various factors when it comes to finding value in betting baseball totals.

Individual team totals is another area of betting baseball totals that has shown nice value since becoming available. Again, limits will be lower, but their are many sharp handicappers that have found +EV in betting team totals.

If you are not familiar, a team total is simply betting on the over or under for the total amount of runs an individual team will score...pretty self explanatory. With team totals, you primarily only have to focus on one pitching staff and not two.

As with all baseball totals, a little more value is typically found with the under, and the same can be said with team totals. Obviously, this is because the public loves seeing runs scored and the sportsbooks are more than happy to get a few extra cents of value out of the squares.

Betting on individual team totals is a great starting point and will take a little less time than handicapping the actual total for the game. What you have to determine as a handicapper, is where you can find your niche in the totals game.

Umpires can play a factor when it comes to betting baseball totals. It's important to know who is behind the plate and what their tendencies are. Let's face it, some umpires have bigger (or smaller) strike zones than others.

Now, we've already hit on this quite a bit in our Baseball Betting Tips chapter, but I wanted to bring it up again because of the role umpires can play in how many runs are scored. Remember, there's a big difference between a 3-1 count and a 2-2 count, and the umpire is the one who makes the subjective strike/ball call.

As with everything in betting baseball totals, the small stuff matters. Don't forget to check who is behind the plate because it can certainly play a role in the outcome of how many runs are scored.

Wow, we finally made it to the end. As I always say, there certainly can be many more tips we can add here, but these are just a few that I feel are "must haves."

You can certainly show a positive ROI at the end of the season when betting baseball, but it's not easy, and you'll definitely need to develop your own strategy. I would encourage anyone wanting to become a serious handicapper to learn everything they can about baseball totals.

It's a part of the sports betting market that the sportsbooks don't like at all (because they typically lose money with it year in and year out). However, they have to offer them in order to stay competitive.

As I always say, find your niche and become an expert at it...and believe me, betting baseball totals is a niche that can be exploited.

Let's move on, shall we. In our next chapter, we'll cover some interesting Baseball Betting Trends and how they can or can't be used in your handicapping. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

Have A Question or Want to Add Your Own Thoughts ?

Have A Question or Want to Add Your Own Thoughts? Well let's hear it so we can all help each other become better handicappers.

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