Betting Baseball Totals

Betting baseball totals is a niche that many successful handicappers have exploited for years. Now when I say "exploited", I don't mean they get rich overnight. What I'm saying is that there are handicappers that consistently turn a nice profit in betting baseball totals year in and year out.

Now for the bad part...it's not easy. It takes time. It takes diligence. It takes hardwork. But most importantly, it takes a strategy. You can't just randomly select games on a daily basis from gut feeling. It may work for a while, but the law of averages will catch up with you and it won't be much fun.

However, the good part is...it can be done. Those handicappers that are successful, obviously, don't all use the same strategy. They all find +EV from various criteria, data, and information that they will implement within their betting baseball totals strategy.

What we're going to do here is give you some tips and advice that can help you create your own strategy. As we've said a million times throughout the Baseball Betting Guide, we're not going to do everything for you. It's up to you to put in the time and hardwork because you'll learn so much more that way.

As always, these tips we provide aren't the end all be all. They're simply a starting point or a contribution to the ones you're currently using within your strategy. I personally would use each one on a daily basis when betting baseball totals because I know just about every successful handicapper does...plus many others ones as well.

You may already know a few of these, especially if you've been at for years or, they may all be brand new. What we're trying to do is provide you with some tips and insight into a type of wagering that can be a profitable niche year in and year out. So let's get to it.

Now we've already covered a lot of the basics within our Understanding Baseball Betting Lines chapter, so we'll try not to overlap. What we're going to focus on here is price and line movement (at least for the most part).

As we've said many times before, it's extremely crucial to shop for the best price, but more importantly to shop for the best line. If you can get 8.5 instead of 9, then that is absolutely huge if you're betting the over (depending on the price, of course). Yea, you'll have to pay a little more, but that half point can be crucial.

Again, this is why it's so important to have multiple outs (multiple sportsbook accounts). When betting a side in baseball, the sportsbook will adjust the price/odds up or down depending on how much money is coming in and who is betting it. However, when betting baseball totals, the sportsbooks will initially move the price, but after it's been moved a certain amount, they will adjust the total by .5 runs.

Let's take a look at an example: 10o-115. This is telling us that the total is set at 10. Taking the over will be -115 odds and taking the under will be -105 odds (most sportsbooks have a 20 cent line when it comes to totals).

The more money being bet on the over (increase in spread between money bet on the over compared to the under), the more the sportsbook will adjust the price. Typically, they'll adjust it to -120, then -125, possibly -130 (if they're really wanting to hold the number at 10), and then they'll actually move the total to 10.5 and bump the price to say 10.5u-120.

Now 10 really isn't a key number when it comes totals, so they'll probably adjust it after -125 (we'll talk more about key numbers below). Most of the time it's in your favor to take the best total if you can find it, even though you'll have to pay a higher price.

Even with the higher price from the better number, you'll change losses into pushes and pushes into wins. Although you may lose a little more juice in losing wagers over the year, it should be more than offset by the number of losses turned to pushes and pushes turned to wins.

To break it down even further, Betting Baseball 2009 has a nice table that shows you the value of half a run on various totals and the maximum price you should pay. Again though, for the most part, you should always take the half a run.

Another great book that dedicates a small section to betting baseball totals is Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao. He also does a great job breaking down the importance of a half run and what the real value is in cents (especially on key numbers, which we'll talk more about below). He offers some fantastic charts and examples that I highly recommend for the novice or even intermediate handicapper.

Something else I'll mention in this betting baseball totals section is steam that comes in on a total. It happens everyday and it can either screw you or help you. When steam comes rolling in, the number will immediately, typically, get adjusted by half a run. Now, this can either help you or hurt you.

I would personally make your plays on totals with either the overnight lines or early in the morning (of course as long as your numbers match up). It's better to have your price locked in than take the chance of your line getting steamed.

However, on the flip side, steam can be your friend. Once you've already got your plays in for the day at the numbers you want (value), then you can follow the line movement throughout the day because others may fall into place (from steam or public money coming in).

Trust me, it's not a bad thing to go against the steam moves...it doesn't really mean a whole lot. If you have solid numbers, then by all means trust them and bet them when a total is offering +EV according to your data. I think you get the point, so let's move on to our next baseball betting totals section.

You've probably heard me say this before, but it's important to know that baseball totals have reduced limits for a very important reason...because as I've said, there are handicappers that can consistently produce better numbers than the oddsmakers.

Let's face it, setting totals is almost an after thought once the line for the side is set. With roughly 10-15 games every day, it's very difficult for the sportsbooks to set sharp lines on totals.

They're basically taking their best guess, and a lot of times, letting the sharp bettors adjust the number. Now obviously, they do a fair job at setting a good line, but there are certainly ones that can be exploited.

And that's exactly the reason limits are reduced for betting baseball totals. Now we can't tell you any kind of top secret formula to produce sharp totals, but if you take the time to run your own numbers, make adjustments for park, weather, pitchers...etc, I can assure you that you'll have the opportunity to be a very good totals bettor.

Key numbers? That's right. As surprising as it may sound to some, their are key numbers when it comes to betting baseball totals. These are very crucial to be aware of because if you can find totals off of these key numbers, then you may have found great value.

Roughly 25-30% of all games end with totals of 7, 9, or 11. The reason for this is because tie games of 3-3, 4-4, or 5-5, usually end with one team winning by one run either in 9 innings, or more likely in extra innings.

So the key numbers to remember are 7, 9, and 11. However, more games land on 7 and 9 than any other. Sportsbooks don't like moving off these key numbers at all.

Heavy action must be coming in on one side for sportsbooks to adjust the line (very similar to 3 and 7 in football). The important part is to be on the right side of these key numbers.

As I said previously, I would encourage you to bet your totals as early as possible. This is extremely important when the total is half a run away from landing on a key number.

If I'm wanting the over in a game that is currently listed (overnight line) at 8.5, then you better be damn well sure I'm betting that immediately (same with 6.5 and 10.5). It's not worth the risk for the possibility of the line moving up to 9 the next day.

The same can be said of the under as well. If I'm wanting the under and the overnight line is 7.5, then I'm definitely taking it (same with 9.5 or 11.5). Again, in my opinion, it's just not worth it to wait for a better line or price.

As I've said before when betting baseball totals, you want to get your bets in as early as possible (preferably overnight). Once these are placed, you can then watch for line/price movement the next day and analyze if value is coming into play (basically has any of the price/line movement created +EV with your numbers).

To move on to the next section, click on Betting Baseball Totals Part 2.

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