Betting Basketball Totals

Plain and simple, great value can be found in betting basketball totals (whether it's the NBA or college). As I've said many times, and any professional handicapper will tell you the same, betting on NBA sides can be very difficult.

However on the flip side, tremendous opportunities can be found with betting basketball totals...it just takes a little homework on your part. Most public bettors (squares) don't put in the time to find these opportunities and simply stick with sides.

In talking with sportsbook managers, all will tell you they make a very nice profit year in and year out in the NBA. The public loves betting sides because it's much easier to find team information from just about any sports based website...and I have to admit, it's just more fun to be able to root for a team.

But betting on the NBA isn't about having a team to root for, it's about making money. Wherever you can find value in betting, you have to be able to take advantage of it. I can guarantee you that there are many more +EV situations in betting basketball totals than there are in taking a side.

Trust me, there's a reason why most sportsbooks have reduced limits on NBA and college totals. Most of their time is put into setting sharp lines on the sides, with much less time being spent on setting totals.

A smart sports bettor will realize these discrepancies and take advantage of what the book gives them...and if it's soft lines on NBA totals, then so be it. As I said, betting on the NBA is about making money, not pleasing the sportsbook.

A good rule of thumb to know is that the more line movement there is, the more value there is as well. More line movement typically means the oddsmaker or sportsbooks have put out a line that needs to be adjusted in order to get close to equal action on each side.

NBA sides are relatively stable, maybe moving a half point to a couple points throughout the day. While an NBA total can easily move 5, 6, 7, or even more points throughout the day enabling you to possibly follow the steam or even take advantage of middling opportunities.

Line movement is extremely important to follow when betting basketball totals...especially the early and late line movement during the day because that is typically sharp money moving the lines. If you're able to take advantage of the line movement before the value is gone or if a line moves to where there is now value, then you must capitalize of these opportunities.

The public hasn't discovered the prospects of betting basketball totals (and probably never will). As I said before, there's not much appeal to it and it takes a little more research on their part.

Sharp bettors have known about it for years and are more than happy to lay off the sides in order to take advantage of the value found in totals. For me personally, I still will bet sides here and there, but for the most part, my time is spent researching the totals.

Now if you think there's some kind of secret formula to betting them, then you're going to be sadly mistaken. As with anything else in life, it just comes down to putting in some hard work to be successful.

The three most important criterion for being successful at betting basketball totals are research (formulating your own numbers), paying attention to line movement, and having multiple outs (multiple sportsbook accounts). Obviously you'll add more criterion and information over time, but these should serve as your core when researching and finding value with NBA (or college) totals.

As far as research goes, our game matchups page will give you a lot of data and research on a game by game basis. However, I highly recommend you look into creating and formulating your own numbers to see how they actually match up with the totals that the sportsbooks put out.

A great starting point is to implement the same formula that is used within the point differential system that we practice in our NFL betting. It will take a little time to plug the numbers and data into an Excel spreadsheet, but once you get them in there you'll only need to update them daily.

This information can be great for both totals and sides. I personally use the formula as laid out, along with a few tweaks. Of course when creating your own numbers, you'll also need to account for more subjective information like injuries, road trips, public perception...etc.

Creating your own numbers will give you a tremendous advantage over 99% of handicappers that our out there. Squares will never take the time to do this (and yes it will take a little time up front) but you'll be way ahead of the game.

Overtime, you'll most likely add your own tweaks and formula's, basically creating your own individual systems for handicapping basketball. As I've said before, I won't do everything for you because you'll learn so much more by doing it yourself.

Once you're able to compare your own numbers to that of the oddsmakers, you can then start to learn, look for discrepancies, and find out why they are there. Once you've done this and the numbers still aren't matching up (or at least very close), then you may have just found some value. Of course, you'll always want to give it some time before actually putting real money on the line.

I threw both of these together since I've probably already beat you over the head with them enough. Once you've created your own numbers, you can then watch the line movement in the totals to see how they adjust...and if they're moving closer to your own lines then you've probably found some value.

Now you don't have to watch line movement every second of the day, but you will want to keep an eye on it. If lines start moving because of sharp action then you should seriously look at getting on the same side if there is still value there.

If the lines start moving and they move far enough for you to bet the other way (because your data matches up) then take the bet. Also, as I said before, you may even have middling opportunities because of the tremendous amount of movement that occurs in betting basketball totals.

As I've said a million times, it's an absolute must to have at least 5 funded sportsbook accounts to take advantage of the best line available. According to King Yao's calculations, author of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting, each half point you can save will increase your win percentage on that game by 3.3%.

This may not seem like much, but overtime this will add up big time. For example, for every 300 games, roughly 10 of those games will turn from a loss into a push and from a push into a win. If you're betting $110 a game, that means you'll save $550 (from turning losses into pushes) and make $500 (from turning pushes into winners), thus resulting in over a $1000 increase in profit.

This could be absolutely huge for your bankroll at the end of a season. Like I said though, it may not seem like much, but after a season's worth of betting, it will add up exponentially.

Just take the time to have multiple outs (sportsbook accounts) because it will both save and make you a lot of money over time. This is critical when it comes to betting basketball totals because lines can differ from .5 to 2 points at various books.

Adding to your totals arsenal, we'll offer up a few systems that I've learned over the years. As with all systems though, they should never be used as the sole purpose for betting on a game.

A sports betting system should be used in addition to your normal handicapping...in other words, just don't bet a game blindly because that's what the system is stating. Click here to check out all of our NBA Betting Systems

I cannot stress enough how important betting basketball totals can be to your overall sports betting philosophy. While they may take a little more time and research, I can assure you'll find much more value and +EV situations than with other sports.

Now that you have some good concepts on basketball totals, let's take a look at some tips and strategies for NBA Playoff Betting. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

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