Betting College Basketball Totals

Betting college basketball totals has become extremely popular over recent years (starting around 2006). Mainly because of very efficient models being created by sharp handicappers. However, those clever sportsbooks recognize this and that's why they set much lower limits on college hoops totals.

For the most part, limits are set anywhere from $250 to $1000, depending on who is playing and if it's on TV or not...among other factors (this is being written in 2011, so things may have changed depending on when you're reading this).

For most novice sports bettors, those limits aren't a big deal, but for the full time handicapper that means you'll need many outs. Even more aggravating can be the extreme line movement that can occur simply from a $250 wager...it's even more apparent shortly after the lines are released.

Until the sportsbooks get a better handle on understanding college basketball totals, limits will remain low for some time to come. However, that absolutely doesn't mean you should avoid them. Quite the opposite actually.

Personally, I would dedicate most of my time to the college hoops totals market because at some point limits will be increased (although that means tighter totals as well). Along the same lines as this, I would also highly recommend compiling a database of first and second half total information as well. As of right now, this is another extremely weak market that can be exploited.

We'll talk a little more about first and second half data/research in our next chapter, but I did want to bring it up here briefly just to get you thinking. Our focus here will be on betting college basketball totals for the entire game.

There's not one right or wrong way to do it and the ones who are successful at it certainly don't use the same exact methods or models. What I'd like to do here is introduce some ideas/tips on what to look for when developing a successful totals handicapping strategy.

I know, I know...I've already mentioned this, but I do want to stress this point. As of right now, it definitely is a soft spot for sportsbooks and most likely an overall loser for majority of them. However, they still need to post totals simply from a competition standpoint.

Hopefully, limits will increase in the future, but they are what they are right now. At this moment, Pinnacle is probably the leader in creating totals (making a market), with The Greek and Cris (BookMaker) falling behind. Most every other shop simply copies the lines from these books...again with Pinnacle being the market maker at this point.

As with everything in the sports betting world, things will probably change in a couple years. As for now though, college hoops totals are a weak-spot for sportsbooks, which means reduced limits for handicappers (the only thing you can do is have multiple outs and hit them all at the same time).

Because the totals market is so sharp and the books are at a disadvantage, the lines can be extremely erratic...especially before conference play begins (but also on a daily basis when lines are initially posted and as well as within an hour of game time).

It's very tough to get much down at all the first month or two of the season and even a seemingly small wager can move the line 1-3 points.

The books have become increasingly more intelligent (Pinnacle in particular) at letting the market adjust the lines when initially released at very low limits and then slowly increasing the limits throughout the day when the line has been adjusted.

I certainly applaud Pinnacle for making a market in college basketball totals, but let's just hope it opens up and becomes a little more liquid in the years to come. I know the books are trying to run a business, but they seem to forget they're also charging a 5-10% commission.

Yes I know, I'm really reinventing the wheel with this one, but in my opinion this is very crucial no matter what sports you handicap. Create your own numbers (predicted outcome and probability) and track them.

That's the only way you're going to know if they're worth a darn. I would personally start off by looking at both Sagarin's in USA Today and Ken Pomeroy's at his website. Both provide some very solid data that can be used to create very efficient models.

Am I going to explain step by step how to create these models? Of course not, you know me better than that. It's up to you to put in the hardwork and learn along the way.

Just know that the information and data they provide can help you out immensely in creating your own numbers...and no you can't just bet their power ratings blindly (and that goes for Pomeroy's predicted game scores as well...trust me, the sportsbooks are looking at these sites on a daily basis too).

It's seems nowadays, most handicappers go with their own proprietary quantitative analysis (myself included). The main reason simply being because of the amount of teams and lined games in mens college basketball. In my opinion, it would be impossible to actually produce an in depth qualitative analysis for every game on every day.

However, there our still handicappers who utilize qualitative research on a daily basis, but they will typically focus their efforts on a select few conferences in which they specialize in (as we mentioned in our College Basketball Betting Advice chapter.

Let me also say that I am in no way saying that one method is better than the other. It's probably a combination of both which is ideal.

For me personally, I let my quantitative research narrow the number of games drastically, so that I'm then able to look at each one in a more qualitative manner.

Nothing new with this piece of advice, but I wanted to include it in here again. Lines move drastically and they can differ from one book to another. Obviously, depending on how much you're wagering can limit your outs, but if you're a smaller bettor, then try to always take advantage of the best line.

It's amazing how much money even a half point can save or make you over the course of a season...even more important with the higher number of games that you wager. Again, it can be difficult with the illiquid college basketball totals market, but it's still important to get the best line.

Many people have and will continue to focus only on totals. Whether it's college basketball totals, sides or 1st and 2nd halves, find your niche and become an absolute expert at it. Utilize your time in the most productive and profitable manner.

If you spread yourself to thin, then you could be forgoing opportunities in what you really excel in. This tip applies to every sport that you handicap. Find out what you're good at, create a methodology, study it, and then exploit the hell out of it.

You're focus needs to be narrowed down to either one or two types of bets per sport. Everyone is a little different in how they approach it, but the key is to become an absolute expert and to narrow your focus in the sport it is your handicapping (again, this is my opinion, right or wrong).

Here's a general tip if you are to start betting totals. Have a feel and understanding for the tempo of the two teams you are researching to possibly put a wager on.

They typically will each have their own tempo, but one teams normally wins out. You need to know which team this will be. Looking at past performance can reveal some very good insight as to who has the more imposing tempo.

Something else that is very critical to consider is points per possession and possessions per game. PosPG can be extremely telling in the type of tempo a team has, and even more importantly is looking at their opponents PosPG.

However, I think the most important stat to follow is how many points are scored per possession (I personally love this one). It's one of those you're most likely going to have to track yourself though.

However, the information and predictability that can be found from this stat is very insightful (PPP = points per game divided by possessions per game) into creating an accurate line as well as an accurate total. Run with this stat

So their we have it, some good tips and insight to get you going on betting college basketball totals. As I always say, none of the information here is going to make you a "sharp" handicapper, but it certainly can get you going in the right direction.

It's up to you to take it to the next level. Typically, the initial time up front can be consuming, but once things are in place, it's usually just a matter of updating and examining the data on a daily basis...and that can be streamlined pretty easily.

Let's now take a look at some more factors that go into college basketball handicapping. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

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