College Basketball Betting Strategies

Let's now take a look at some college basketball betting strategies that can easily be implemented into your overall philosophy. While we just covered some tips in our previous chapter, I think of strategies as being a little more in depth, requiring a bit more understanding.

All of the different strategies listed in this chapter are meant to get you thinking about what to look for when handicapping games. All of them don't need to be implemented or followed on a daily basis. They are shared to help give you a starting point or possibly be in addition to your current philosophy.

As I always say, we're not going to be sharing some kind of top secret college basketball betting strategies. I can assure you that no one will...it simply wouldn't be in their best interest (no matter what some touts or websites will tell you).

All of the information listed here is meant to be built upon. In other words, refine it to how you handicap a college game. Ideas to think about will include looking for certain trends in line movement, knowing where and why the money is coming in on one side, being able to justify each and every wager you make, etc.

These college basketball betting strategies are meant as a supplement to your handicapping...nothing more, nothing less. None of them should be followed blindly...as I said, you always need to be able to justify why you made a bet.

Alright, alright, enough already. Let's get to the good stuff. So without further ado, here are some easy to implement college basketball betting strategies.

I know we've already covered this a good bit in our College Basketball Lines chapter, but I wanted to bring it up again here. This strategy really depends on how much time you have to follow line movement.

As I've said before, it's important to get your bets in as early as possible (to prevent lines moving against you), but it's also important to see how the lines move throughout the day to uncover any value that may have opened up.

Games will get steamed throughout the day, and if that happens, it may open an opportunity to take the other side if that's were your data is pointing. As I said though, most people (unless you do this for a living) don't have the time to monitor movement throughout the day.

If you don't, then simply checking the line periodically can be good enough. See where the action is coming, who the public is betting, and also look for reverse line moves that can also open up another opportunity (i.e. if a game is very close to a bet for you, but not quite, and the line is starting to reverse, then that may be a trigger for you to go ahead and wager because other sharp bettors are finding the value that you are).

A lot can be learned from understanding and having a good knowledge of line moves. It can't be learned over night, but eventually, a massive amount of information can be gathered and interpreted from tracking lines.

Don't just study every single stat that some website gives you. Narrow it down to what is pertinent and what isn't. Even more important though, study game match-ups in relation to comparable opponents.

In other words, don't just look at how a team has performed season to date or over it's last 10 games. Study how a team has performed against teams that present a similar match-up for the game in which you're handicapping.

A few good stats that I like to look at are (with comparable match-ups of course):

Point Distribution
Playing Time Distribution (Bench Depth)
Free Through Margin
Cover Margin (Home or Away)
Field Goal Percentage (both 2 and 3 point, on both offense and defense)
Turnover Ratio
Rebound Margin (a little more weighting on offensive)

Certainly nothing groundbreaking here at all, but these few statistics can be a very telling story of a teams past performance. More importantly though, they can give you great insight into their upcoming match-up.

Plus, they are all easily accessible from a number of websites and can be uploaded into your own database on a daily basis for even more convenience (if you're not familiar with data importing, then I would suggest you either teach yourself or hire someone (freelancer.com) to create the database for you, where all you basically have to do is push a button to have it uploaded (pretty inexpensive, but it all depends on the complexity of the database you're wanting to create).

College Basketball Betting Strategies -
Follow Your Own Research (not what the talking heads
or touts are telling you)

So many handicappers get taken off course because they listen to someone else that really has other interests in mind...TV or radio ratings, most likely. Well, don't bother taking what they say to heart.

Unless it is coming from a very respectable source, then I would simply ignore it. I know a lot of the talking heads and touts sounds very convincing, but I seriously would just tune all of them out when it comes to doing your handicapping.

Don't let someone talk you into or out of a wager unless you can verify and agree with the reasoning. Otherwise, stick to your own research data and let it be the reasoning for making a bet or not making a bet.

I'm certainly not saying to tune everyone out, but rather recommending only following extremely reputable sources...like Sports Betting Insights, of course.

Information overload can certainly occur...or what they call analysis by paralysis. Follow your own research and college basketball betting strategies that you have in place...and always remember to be very selective in who you listen too.

College Basketball Betting Strategies - Know Who The Public Is Betting (especially in big televised games)

You probably know what I'm getting at here because I've already mentioned it a few times when following the lines. Basically, look to fade the public on one sided televised games (obviously your handicapping must agree as well).

Public bettors love to wager on televised games, whether the bet is justifiable or not...it's just a way of life. Sportsbooks are well aware of this and they're more than happy to shade the line towards the team the public in betting.

This will give the astute handicapper opportunities to take advantage of that line value (again, as long as your handicapping agrees with it as well). Typically it means going against a bigger named school playing on TV.

Don't be afraid to bet those underdogs or unders (as we know, the public loves favorites and lots of points being scored). Don't fall into that trap. Let your own research show you were possible opportunities exist...stay away from popular public perception because it's typically not justified.

I truly believe this is one of the most important college basketball betting strategies when it comes to your handicapping. It does take a little effort, since I'm not aware of any sites that track it, but it can be a critical factor in your research.

Cover margin is simply the average by which a team does or does not cover the spread...if you're familiar with Chad Millman at ESPN, he calls it the sweat barometer, but regardless it's the average amount by which a team does or doesn't cover ATS.

I personally take it a step further and like to break it down by the average when a team covers and the average when a team doesn't cover. If a team has a larger cover margin when beating the spread, but a very small non-cover margin when losing ATS, then this is a team that still isn't getting much respect from oddsmakers.

In other words, public perception still hasn't caught up with reality pertaining to this team. The exact opposite would be a team that has a large non-cover margin when losing ATS, but a small cover margin when winning ATS...this obviously would be a team where public perception is still outweighing reality.

The initial tracking may take a little time to set up, but once it's complete, it's an easy stat to track and can be one of the best college basketball betting strategies you run across. Remember, cover margin is the one true factor that really looks into the "value" you may or may not think your getting.

This strategy coincides with the previous one just mentioned. As I said, lines can and will be shaded. Sportsbooks love to try and get as much value as they can because they still know they can get a ton of public money on the bigger name team.

It's just a fact of sports betting. Be very wary of taking a heavily favored public team (Duke, UNC, KU, etc), especially if it's on TV as well. I'm not a big fan of taking big favorites in the first place, but even more so when it's a popular school.

Let's move on, I think I've beaten the "public" perception strategy into the ground by now.

Beware of teams that basically have nothing to play for. It's typically going to be towards the last month of the season. Some teams know they have no chance of making either the NIT or NCAA tournament.

The coach and players realize this so they may start preparing for next year. Examples of what to watch for include changing the starting lineup, changing their overall strategy, playing more zone, pushing the pace, slowing the pace...etc.

It's good to know which teams fall into these situations because they may be good "bet against" teams or at least in certain match-ups. Again, I know it's more work, but if you narrow your focus to 1 or 2 conferences, you should be well aware of which teams fall into this category.

If you know me by now, I don't put anything into the BS trends that you see posted everywhere on sports betting sites. For the most part, they truly are worthless.

The past is not always a prediction of the future. Yes, some trends have value as long as there is a significant sample size and there's actually substance behind it, but the trends that cover 5 or 10 games (and have such random criteria) are meaningless.

As I've said before, if you can find 10 trends supporting one team, I can find 10 trends to go against that same team. Follow them if you will, but try to steer clear for the most part.

Don't let what happened yesterday (or even in the morning) cloud your judgment later. Everything should be handicapped independently. Place all of your wagers at one time...or if you place one later, it should only be because the line moved to fit your criteria (basically it should never be because you're trying to chase you losses).

There should always be a justifiable reason to bet more on one game or bet another game after you've initially laid your bets. It basically comes down to having a solid, justifiable reason for every bet you make.

So there you have it. You've got some advice, some tips, and now we've just went over some college basketball betting strategies. As I always say, these are simply a starting point, it's up to you to take it to the next level with your own style of handicapping.

College hoops is a very profitable sport to bet (the sportsbooks are well aware of this), as long as you have a proven philosophy in place. Have a game plan before ever making a wager.

Develop you're own personalized strategies and continue to refine and tweak them over time. For me, college basketball and baseball are the two most profitable sports I handicap...and that probably explains why they're my two favorite sports as well (if you couldn't tell by reading both guides).

Now let's move on to what has become a very profitable niche for some handicappers: college basketball totals. As always, we wish you the best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

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