Handicapping a Baseball Game (continued)

Moving on to part two of Handicapping a Baseball Game, we'll get into estimating the amount of runs scored from our example in part 1 and then cover a few of the popular formulas that can help you create your own line.

Once we've created our own line, we'll go over how to turn that into an expected win percentage. After this, we'll mention some other factors that may cause you to the adjust the line, as well as other ideas that can be taken into account when deciding whether to make a wager.

Finally, we'll make mention of a few websites that offer some good information in formula creation for the "do it yourself" handicapper. As you can tell, a lot of information is taken into account when it comes to handicapping a baseball game.

It may be a little overwhelming at first, but you just have to take it one step at a time. If you're not familiar with these concepts, don't try to jump right in and do everything at first...baby steps are important when it first comes to handicapping a baseball game.

Once you have a good foundation in place, you can then get as deep as you want into the statistical side of handicapping. Just remember that it's not going to happen over night, but never forget that you can be a winning baseball bettor.

Enough of me harping, let's get back to where we left off in part one of our Handicapping a Baseball Game chapter.

Using our example in part one, we know that Team A has an offensive rating of 1.05 and a defensive rating of 1.08. Team B has an offensive rating of .99 and a defensive rating of 1.07.

The only other variable we need to know is the average number of runs scored per team in their respective league (we're going to use average since it is a very easy number to find, but you can narrow it down to that particular ball park, starting pitchers...etc).

We'll say that the average runs scored per team is 4.46. Now that we have this number, we'll take Team A's offensive rating times Team B's defensive rating. We'll then take this number and it multiply it by the average runs scored per team in their respective league. It would look like this for each team:

(Team A Offense (1.05) x Team B Defense (1.07)) x 4.46 = 5.01
(Team B Offense (.99) x Team A Defense (1.08)) x 4.46 = 4.77

This tells us that we expect Team A to score 5.01 runs in the average ballpark (if not already taken into account) and Team B is expected to score 4.77. While this is very important to know, we now need to determine how to create our own line from this information.

Alright, now this is where it might get a little math heavy, but we'll try to keep it as simplified as possible. However, to get much more into the details, just Google "Pythagorean formula baseball" or "formulas to creating baseball win percentage" and you'll get more than enough information (an interesting blog is Sabermetric Research.)

We're not here to show you how smart we are or talk above you, but rather give you a simple way to create your own line, but also show give you the opportunity to take it as far as you'd like when handicapping a baseball game.

The 3 formula's we'll discuss here are the Pythagorean formula from Bill James, PythagenPort by Clay Davenport, and PythagenPat by David Smyth. The original and by far most recognized is the Pythagorean formula by James.

The original formula by James looked like this: Win% = Runs Scored ^ 2 / ((Runs Scored ^ 2) + (Runs Allowed ^ 2)). However, he later suggested that a more accurate exponent would be 1.83 as opposed to the 2.

While this formula proved to be quite accurate in a "normal" scoring game, it was proven to be much less accurate in a lower or higher scoring game, hence the floating exponents we use in both PythagenPort and PythagenPat.

PythagenPort looks like this: Win% = Runs Scored ^ Exponent / ((Runs Scored ^ Exponent) + (Runs Allowed ^ Exponent)), where the exponent = 1.5*log(estimated runs per game) + .45. For estimated runs per game, you can either use the amount of runs you've already estimated to be scored (5.01 + 4.77 in our example) or a consensus over/under total from the sportsbooks (obviously you can use other estimates as well, but these are two good examples).

I prefer to use a consensus over/under total from the sportsbooks in my calculations, but again it's up to you. On a side-note, all of these calculations are very easy to insert and track in Excel or some other type of spreadsheet software (there are many to choose from).

The floating exponent in PythagenPort gives this formula a more accurate win percentage in extreme run scoring environments, thus overall making it a more sound formula in your calculations.

Finally, we have PythagenPat. I personally feel that PythagenPat is the most accurate of the 3 formulas, and while I put the most weight into this one, I calculate all of them when handicapping a baseball game.

PythagenPat also uses a floating exponent and is more accurate than both Pythagorean and PythagenPort in both normal and high/low scoring games.

The formula looks like this: Win% = Runs Scored ^ Exponent / ((Runs Scored ^ Exponent) + (Runs Allowed ^ Exponent)), where the exponent = (estimated runs per game)^.287. We use the same calculations for estimated runs per game as explained above in PythagenPort.

Is this about as clear as mud for you yet? All of the formulas are very easy to insert into Excel and can be calculated in a matter of seconds, with you simply inserting the variables.

So let's take a look at a real world example of each formula using the numbers we've already created for Team A and Team B as listed above.

(5.01 ^ 1.83) / ((5.01 ^ 1.83) + (4.77 ^ 1.83) = .5224 (52.24%)
In this calculation, we have estimated that Team A has a 52.24% chance of winning which would mean that Team B is estimated to have a 47.76% chance of winning (we'll calculate how to turn these percentages into an actual betting line below, as we'll do with all of the formulas).

As for the estimated runs scored variable, we'll use the consensus over/under number found by looking at the lines of at least 10 sportsbooks. As we stated above, it's up to where you derive this estimated runs scored variable from (consensus over/under or your own data). In this example we'll use 9.

First we need to determine the exponent. Here is how it's calculated: 1.5*log(9) + .45 = 1.8813. Now that we have the exponent, we can now figure PythagenPort for Team A.

(5.01 ^ 1.8813) / ((5.01 ^ 1.8813) + (4.77 ^ 1.8813)) = .5231 (52.31%)
In this calculation, we have estimated that Team A has a 52.31% chance of winning which would mean that Team B is estimated to have a 47.69% chance of winning (we'll calculate how to turn these percentages into an actual betting line below).

As with PythagenPort, we'll use the sportsbooks consensus over/under line for the estimated runs scored variable. With that being the case, we'll need to find the exponent first. Here's how we calculate that: 9^.287 = 1.8787

(5.01 ^ 1.8787) / ((5.01 ^ 1.8787) + (4.77 ^ 1.8787)) = .5230 (52.30%)
In this calculation, we have estimated that Team A has a 52.30% chance of winning which would mean that Team B is estimated to have a 47.70% chance of winning (we'll calculate how to turn these percentages into an actual betting line below).

You can see in each of the formula calculations that the results are all very similar. However, in much lower (7.5 or below) or higher (10 or above) scoring games (estimated runs scored), the results can vary much more.

I personally would put the most weight in PythagenPat, followed by PythagenPort, and then Pythagorean (the creators of each of these formula's have also said the same). I always compare all 3 giving PythagenPat about a 70% weighting, PythagenPort 20%, and Pythagorean roughly 10%.

With that calculation (52.3*0.7)+(52.31*0.2)+(52.24*0.1), our final results would be Team A winning 52.296% of the time and Team B winning 47.704% of the time. Now let's turn this percentage into a baseball betting line.

Now this is a simple process, but we'll take you through how to create your own true line for the game now that we have our expected win percentages established. To find the true line for Team A, the formula looks like this: (.52296/(.52296-1) = -1.096 (we'll round to -110). The true line for Team B would be the exact opposite at +110.

Now we'll want to compare are own line to that of various sportsbooks to find if there is value to be taken advantage of. Everyone has there own parameters (and you'll certainly refine and tweak your numbers over time to get them as accurate as possible), but a good starting point is to only look at games that are more than 10 cents off from your line (again it's up to you when your handicapping a baseball game).

Now you're going to have to track your own lines for a while to determine how accurate they are. However, creating the line is only one part to actually handicapping a baseball game. Once you find out those games that you believe offer value in the line, you'll then want to look at other factors.

Yes I know, quite a transition to this section. Other factors that you should consider, if they aren't already, are:

- Park factors
- Home field advantage
- Recent peformance and momentum
- Playoff implications
- Are they playing for anything
- Who is in the lineup
- Bullpen Production

The list can go and on depending on how deep you want to handicap. Depending on how you want to go about handicapping a baseball game, you can also look at how trends and systems play into the game as well (Stat Attack Sports can be a huge factor in researching trends and systems that are actually statistically significant as opposed to the ones you see posted at a lot betting websites).

The more data and factors that are in agreement with your line and power rating, the stronger the play you'll have. Again though, it's up to you have far you want to take it when handicapping a baseball game.

Some handicappers just stop after they've created their own line, while others will also consider trends and systems as well. It's up to you, but the key, obviously, is actually turning a profit.

Once you've taken everything into account for handicapping a baseball game, then it's time to pull the trigger. I would highly suggest tracking your plays with no money involved at first (or very little) to see how things progress, so you can make tweaks before actually placing bets on the games.

Once you feel that you've refined enough to where you have an advantage, it's now time to start betting the bases. As always, make sure you have multiple sportsbook accounts so you can always take advantage of the best lines available.

As for help in creating your own line and much more detailed information, there are a couple forums that can be of help and get you going in the right direction...especially when it comes to the extremely technical side of things.

We're here to give you the ideas, but it's up to you how detailed and complicated you want to get with it. Computer technology has been a big help to handicappers and these two forums can be of help when you have questions (but feel free to always check with us first).

SBR Handicapper Think Tank - there are a few pretty decent posters there, but by far the best was "Ganchow." He doesn't post there anymore (not sure what happened to him), but search for his posts because he's shared a ton of great information on the site that I truly feel is invaluable.

CappersMall Technicapping - while maybe not as well known as SBR, they still offer a lot of good information within the forum. "uva3021" is probably the most prominent poster and shares a lot of in depth detailed information that, as with "Ganchow", I feel can be invaluable to the technical handicapper.

Wow, I think we've finally come to the end. Let's hope you were able to pick something up and you now have a good feeling of what goes into to actually handicapping a baseball game.

It may seem a little overwhelming at first, but as I always say, just take it one step at a time. Technology and Microsoft Excel can be a huge help, so I encourage you to learn as much as possible (feel free to ask us anything and the forums can be a great help as well).

Over time, you'll develop your own philosophy to handicapping a baseball game and hopefully you'll start show a nice ROI. It can be done, but it just takes a little time.

Now that you know the ins and outs of what goes into handicapping an actual game, let's go over some tips and strategies for betting on postseason baseball. As always, best of luck in all your sport betting endeavors.

New! Comments

SBI!

Putting It All Together: Handicapping a Baseball Game (continued)

New! Comments

Putting It All Together:
Handicapping a Baseball Game (continued)