How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread

Always interested in finding new strategies for handicapping football, I was intrigued by How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread. While I wasn't familiar with Bobby Smith prior to reading the book, I can now say that he takes an interesting approach to betting the NFL.

The book shared a lot of information that was primarily intended for the beginning to novice handicapper. However, the concepts introduced within How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread can be of benefit to any experienced handicapper as well.

As previously stated, I wasn't familiar with the author or the website he operates (Sportsreporter.com). While he does make mention of his website, he doesn't try to up sale you by promoting it throughout the book, which I was very appreciative of.

I've found that a lot of handicappers go that route these days when they publish a book. Mr. Smith does not and simply goes about laying out some tips and strategies for betting on the NFL.

As the book is titled How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread, it's obvious what the purpose is. While it did start off a little slow for me (first couple chapters), I can certainly empathize with what he was trying to get across.

However, directly following the first couple of chapters, he gets into what I thought were some very fundamental ideas in handicapping the NFL. So with that said, let's get go over what I really enjoyed about How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread.

As I stated earlier, it started off a little slow, but I understand the point he was making and it is a very valid point if you're just starting to bet on the NFL...and that is, don't listen to the talking heads in the media (radio, tv, newspaper) because they all live in "straight up" world.

A very good point and one we always stress at Sports Betting Insights. While he does list and make reference to a number of charts and graphs throughout the book, they are explained in a very easy to understand manner.

With that being said, the charts and graphs (and information behind them) were certainly one of the high points in the book. A lot of it had to do with basic reversion to the mean which, as you may or may not know, is something we try to stress in our handicapping guides.

In other words, teams that had statistics (ATS records, turnovers, overs, etc) that varied greatly from the mean, tended to revert either later in the year or the following year. I think most individuals will find the information to be very interesting, especially when looking at teams to bet on or against prior to the season beginning.

A lot of the charts and graphs can easily be maintained by yourself with a little bit of legwork up front. Remember, Microsoft Excel can be your best friend when it comes to handicapping sports and How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread gives you some great ideas in using it to your advantage.

I did especially like the chapter on challenging the media and all of the misleading data they provide to the square handicapper. I also appreciated the bit of information that was provided on how unreliable trends can be...because that's something we wholeheartedly believe in here at Sports Betting Insights. It will probably be somewhat eye opening to the beginning sports bettor though.

I found Part 2 of the book to offer a great amount of information from understanding team schedules to predicting turnovers from a season to season basis...think mean reversion. Again, very good data that should certainly enlighten most novices.

I was a little more hesitate on the "Sniffing for Blowouts" and "Positioning for Upsets" chapters, but we can discuss that a little more below. However, the last thing I'll mention is the chapter concerning Totals.

I found it to be very intriguing. Most importantly are the scatter charts he refers too. I would highly recommend every handicapper track total points scored as well as ATS differences within scatter charts because you'll be able to see outliers that may reveal great situational plays throughout the year.

For the most part, the book was a very enjoyable read. The first couple of chapters started off a little slow, but I think he was just setting the scene for the rest of the book.

I mentioned earlier that I wasn't really sure about the reasoning for his "Sniffing for Blowouts" and "Positioning for Upsets" chapters. While he did give a few examples of when it worked, I would be curious to see how often it didn't.

I'm not really sure why this would be important when trying to beat the pointspread because it still pays the same whether you win by 1 point or 30...unless of course you're playing alternate spreads. I know easy winners are always nice, but we're always looking for easy winners whether it's a blowout or upset.

It might be a little nit picky on my part, however I do feel there was some good information to be taken from each of the chapters. I was a little perplexed from his view on money management as well...basically sticking to the same wager amount on each bet.

While this may be great for someone just starting out, I don't believe it's the ideal strategy for the "sharp" handicapper. Creating your own optimal bet size formula (based on win probability percentage) from Kelly Criteria (which actually is pretty straight forward) is going to be the ideal money management strategy if you're serious about betting on sports.

Optimal bet size is very important to maximizing ROI on a per game basis. Again, I understand his reasoning with trying to keep it as simple as possible, but it really isn't much effort to determine optimal bet size.

As far as all of the data listed within How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread, I have no reason to believe that it isn't 100% accurate or at least very close to 100%. However, I have not personally checked all of it.

You can probably tell that we did enjoy the book much more than the few issues we had. A lot of information (good information) is shared within it and I really believe it gives some great ideas to the beginning handicapper.

However, there's certainly a few things the seasoned professional could pick up as well. All in all, we can definitely recommend this book without hesitation. It's a very easy read that will certainly open your eyes to betting on the NFL.

A lot of the concepts you won't find many other places, so it certainly can be a great addition to your sports betting arsenal. It's straightforward, to the point, and can help in identifying NFL games where there may be an advantage to exploit. Check it out and I think you'll be happy you did.

To order the book from Amazon or read what others are saying, simply click on one of the links on this page. We welcome and encourage all of your comments as well...you can add them in the section below. As always, best of luck in all your sports betting endeavors.

New! Comments

SBI!

How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread by Bobby Smith

New! Comments

How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread
by Bobby Smith