Super Bowl Betting

It's estimated that well over a billion dollars changes hands from Super Bowl betting. A fraction of that is only bet legally (at least in the US), with the majority being bet through offshore sportsbooks and local bookies.

When it comes to the biggest game of the year, there can literally be 300-400 prop bets listed. Don't get me wrong though, most are for the "squares." However, if you dig deep enough, you can certainly find value in the line or total as well as with the many prop bets offered.

Typically there's a two week period between the conference championships and the Super Bowl which gives you plenty of time to study and research the wagers available. However, the prop bets aren't usually released until a few days after the conference championships, while the actual line and total for the big game are released almost immediately.

There are some great tips and strategies to Super Bowl betting that can help you finish out the NFL season on a strong note. Although it's very important to note that you absolutely should not increase your wager amount simply because it's the Super Bowl (remember, always stick to your money management plan.

Don't Listen To The Talking Heads

I know you've heard me say this many times before, but by far the best tip I can give you for betting the NFL is to not listen to anyone (more likely do the opposite). I can say wholeheartedly that this is the case even more so for Super Bowl betting.

Don't blindly listen to your friends or the opinions of talking head on sports talk radio and television. They're not professional handicappers. They talk in absolutes and, trust me, there is nothing absolute in the NFL. All they want are ratings so they're going to try and hype their show as much as possible whether it's good advice or not.

I personally am a contrarian when it comes to what everybody else is saying, but I also put in a lot of time and research before ever placing my hard earned money on the line. You need to form your own opinion from hard data, especially when it comes to Super Bowl betting.

Now this isn't the case 100% of the time, but for the most part, it's best to go against what the public is betting or just layoff all together. Unless the research and numbers are telling you differently, it's much better to be on the same side as the sportsbook and not the "squares."

Always Take A Good Look At The Underdog

Again, I know you've heard me say it before when it comes to betting on the NFL, but the same holds true when it comes to Super Bowl betting. The public loves taking the favorite.

More likely than not, when the Super Bowl line is released, the public will jump all over the favorite bumping the line up a half or full point. Trust me, sharp sports bettors know this. If they don't like the opening line for either team, then they're more than happy to sit on the sidelines and watch the line on the favorite increase because the public is pounding it.

What this can do is create great value (+EV) for the underdog. Now will the underdog be right 100% of the time? Absolutely not. It's impossible to predict the outcome of any sporting event simply from line movement (or anything for that matter). However, the more value that is created from the underdog getting more points, the more closely you have to look at it.

Most of the time, if you don't bet the favorite soon after the line is released, you're going to be giving up points. I'm certainly not saying that betting the favorite is the wrong move (not at all) but linesmakers are very good at setting sharp lines for the Super Bowl.

With so much parity in the NFL these days, both teams in the Super Bowl typically aren't that far apart from one another. The last three years, 2010, 2009, and 2008, the underdog has covered all 3 and won outright in the two of them. Granted, trends are made to be broken, but don't forget that the teams in the Super Bowl are there for a reason (they're pretty darn good).

Don't Be Scared To Bet The Under

I know, I know, I have a recurring them here. The underdog and the under. Again, by no means am I telling you not to bet the favorite or the over, but I want you to have sound reasoning behind it. Remember, the point spread and total aren't set by the sportbooks as a prediction, there set to have equal amounts of money bet on each side (in theory).

Believe it or not though, the books will shade the lines a little to make it more enticing for the public to bet the favorite or the over, when it's definitely not the smart play. You want to be on the same side as the sharps and, for the most part, the sportsbook...now whether that's the favorite or the underdog or the over or the under, that's for your research to decide.

After the 2010 Super Bowl, five of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone under the total, with the public pounding the over each time. To be honest though, this trend doesn't mean a whole lot to me because it has nothing to do with what will happen next year. Besides, there certainly have been runs when the over was hitting consistently as well.

It all boils down to putting in the research when it comes to Super Bowl betting (or any sports betting for that matter). Take the time to dig into the numbers and I guarantee you can find +EV bets.

Super Bowl Betting Systems

As with any system, a Super Bowl betting system is only as good as the underlying data. There are a couple I've used when handicapping Super Bowls that have been around for years. Let's take a look.

This first one is pretty easy figure out. You just add up the points to determine which team the system recommends betting. This system started off unbelievably hot, but has since cooled down over the past few years. After Super Bowl 44, it currently stands at 33-10-2.

Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

That's it.

Believe it or not, but the other system is even easier and still has a nice track record, going 26-18-2 since inception of the Super Bowl.

1. Bet against the team that didn't cover in their conference championship game.2. If they both covered in their conference championship games, then bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins going into the Super Bowl.3. If they both have the same amount of wins, then bet the underdog.

There you have it, a couple quick Super Bowl betting systems to add to your repertoire.

Super Bowl Betting Propositions

With so many propositions with the Super Bowl, I can assure you that you'll find a few that offer great value...it's almost impossible not too. I personally love the prop bets because there's always +EV to be found.

Don't get me wrong though, the majority of the props are basically worthless because of the high vigorish or sharp lines. This is why you have to read and understand the notes on the props because they definitely can have an effect on valuation.

Believe it or not, but you're going to have to do a little research and homework to determine where the value lies (and yes, math most likely will be involved). A couple of great books that I highly recommend, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao and Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, offer some great information for prop bets.

At first you might be a little overwhelmed by the amount of props, but it shouldn't take long to recognize which ones might offer good value. Once you find those, then you can start digging a littler deeper.

Conclusion

Super Bowl betting can certainly be profitable, but as with anything involving gambling on sports, you just have to put a little hard work into it. Now that we've covered everything from the preseason to the Super Bowl, let's look at some tips and strategies for NFL halftime betting.

Have A Question or Want to Add Your Own Thoughts ?

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